02:10 – Economy:
• Russia: leading producer of enriched uranium
• S&P: Russian hyper-industrialization
• Moscow-Kazan highway: M12 Vostok
• Huawei triumphs in 2023
07:08 – Politico-diplomatic:
• Sikorski & Zelensky vs Russia
• BRICS +++
• Washington Post vs. Marine Le Pen
• No F-16 for kyiv
12:45 – Terrorism:
• Belgorod
20:30 – Arming:
• Leopard 2 out of service
• No Panther for Poland
• Ukrainian DCA vs X-22
• Ukrainian DCA vs apartments
27:35 – General military considerations
• Dourakovleff: Gamelin whines
• US Army: weak power
• STRATPOL: 2023 report
• NATO vs. military reality
• Superiority of the Russian market economy
• Prigozhin
• 2024 scenarios
44:58 – Map of military operations
It is the first conventional military conflict to take place in the age of social media and global cinematography (i.e., the omnipresence of cameras). It brought a veneer (but only a veneer) of immanence to war that, for millennia, had revealed itself only through the mediating forces of cable news, printed newspapers, and victory steles.
For the eternal optimist, the idea that a high-intensity war would be documented by thousands of first-person videos had positive sides. From the standpoint of intellectual curiosity (and martial prudence), the flood of images from Ukraine offers insight into new weapons systems and methods and provides a remarkable level of tactical data. Rather than waiting years of agonizing dissection of after-action reports to reconstruct engagements, we are informed in near real time of tactical movements.
Unfortunately, all the obvious downsides of broadcasting a war live on social media were also present. The war has instantly become sensationalized and saturated with fake, fabricated, or poorly captioned videos, cluttered with information that most people are simply not equipped to parse (for obvious reasons, the average citizen does not have much experience of the differentiation between two post-Soviet armies using similar equipment and speaking a similar, or even the same, language), and pseudo-expertise.
More abstractly, the war in Ukraine has been transformed into an American entertainment product, with celebrity wonder weapons (like the Holy Javelin and HIMARS), grotesque references to American pop culture, visits from American celebrities, and voices off of Luke Skywalker. This all fits very naturally into the American sensibility, because Americans love underdogs, and especially spirited underdogs who overcome extreme obstacles through perseverance and courage.
The problem with this favored narrative structure is that underdogs rarely win wars. Most major peer conflicts don't have the conventional Hollywood plot structure, with a dramatic twist and turn. Most of the time, wars are won by the more powerful state, that is, the one with the capacity to mobilize and effectively apply greater combat power over a longer period of time. This has certainly been the case in American history – although Americans may dearly wish to present themselves as a historical underdog, the United States has historically won its wars because it was an exceptionally powerful state with compelling and innate advantages. compared to their enemies. There is no need to be ashamed of it. As General George Patton said: Americans love winners.
This is how we arrived at a situation of convolution where, despite Russia's many obvious advantages (which ultimately boil down to a superior indigenous capacity for mobilization of men, industrial production and technology) , it became “propagandistic” to claim that Russia would achieve some kind of victory in Ukraine – that Ukraine would end the war having failed to regain its 1991 borders (the victory condition set out by Zelensky) and with the country in a state of wreckage, demographic emptying and material destruction.
We finally seem to have reached a denouement phase, where this view – allegedly an artifact of Kremlin influence, but in reality the most direct and obvious conclusion – becomes inescapable. Russia is a bigger fighter with a much bigger bat.
[...]
Many of us are currently living lives where we feel like we've accidentally added some crazy psychedelic to our morning coffee whose effects refuse to wear off. Once you start to see how few things really are what they seem and how easy it is to trick people into swallowing lies, you become detached from what everyone perceives as “reality”. A heightened understanding of the big picture is associated with an ongoing process of grieving for the naïve world that we once saw as the totality of things.
Years of social engineering, weaponized AI, media propaganda, predictive programming, cultural subversion and corrupt churches have left our society torn with fractures that have shattered families, communities and nationalities. . The old “normal” we used to live in is falling apart, and the new world is on the horizon but is not quite there yet. We see all the signs of a new financial system, a new energy system, a new health care system, a new media system and a new social system, but for the most part they are still all “on the margins”.
I could never have anticipated the situation we find ourselves in in 2023 just a few years ago. It is as if we have gone beyond the territory of the “black swan” to enter the strange zone of the “purple platypus”. One of the key roles played by "information warriors" is to protect mental health and heal trauma by "witnessing" this collective struggle and reminding us that we are not the only ones facing difficulties. I extracted from my brain ten things which, in my eyes, characterize what we are going through.
1) Virtual trenches. The last few years have been marked by endless hours of chatting on Signal, FaceTime, Zoom, WhatsApp and Telegram. We formed tight-knit communities of supporters and confidants, though we never met many of them in person. As a result, our realities are somewhat distorted: the virtual feeling of the other's presence that emanates from an electronic device is not the same as the face-to-face encounter and we need this physical proximity. Virtual trenches can create intense relationships with our resistance comrades, but at the cost of tension or neglect in our immediate environment.
2) The land of scapegoats. Our loved ones have been sold the lie that all “progressive” or “woke” standards are ethical, caring, selfless, respectable, and fair. For them, to accept that it is exactly the opposite constitutes a profound questioning of their image of themselves and of their confidence in authority. In order to defend their psyche against the death of their ego, they must separate themselves from us and consider all plotters as "bad people". We become the receptacles of their unfinished work on their "shadow side" and consequently become the scapegoat. Excluded and ostracized, we find ourselves unable to properly grieve all those relationships stuck in suspended animation while those we love fall victim to the spell of “fashionable lies”.
3) Financial difficulties. “Hanging on,” standing up for your principles, and refusing to obey evil often costs careers, jobs, clients, promotions, and projects. At the same time, we may face upheavals in our lives as we reconfigure them around a changed social reality. Prices in stores are skyrocketing, our savings are melting and we have to bear the costs of preparing for the difficult times ahead. Struggles with corrupt authorities lead us to expend energy that would otherwise be spent earning a living. It's common for patriots to need each other's help to keep fighting against the tide of betrayal.
...
01:21 China and Russian oil
02:00 Kievan provocation in Kharkov
03:26 Delivery of NATO weapons
10:10 Self-criticism 2022
- Error on dates
- Triggering of the special operation
- Ukrainian counter-offensives
- End of year scenarios
17:17 Rational actors vs irrational actors
19:50 Poor performance of the Ukrainian army
21:30 Resilience of the Russian economy
22:50 Overarching Principle of Russian Army Employment
25:32 Map of military operations
Contents of this bulletin N°115, proposed from Moscow by Xavier Moreau, politico-strategic analyst: The sanctions still only hit Europe, the Ukrainian army and the weapons of Soviet origin are largely destroyed.
00.30 Orthodox Christmas Truce
02.16 The Economist and Russia
04.17 Demilitarization of Ukraine
24.13 Denazification of Ukraine
25.29 Debolshevization of Ukraine
30.11 Military Operations Map