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The geopolitical chessboard is turning against the American empire
The geopolitical chessboard is turning against the American empireInternational Network - Jul 31, 2023
The geopolitical chessboard is in perpetual motion – and never more so than in the current incandescent conjuncture.
A fascinating consensus emerges from discussions among Chinese scholars – especially those in the Asian and American diasporas – that not only has Germany/EU lost Russia, perhaps irretrievably, but China has gained Russia. , with an economy highly complementary to its own and strong ties to the Global South/Global Majority that can benefit and help Beijing.
Meanwhile, a small number of Atlanticist foreign policy analysts are now trying to change the discourse on NATO and Russia, applying the rudiments of realpolitik.
The new narrative is that it is 'strategically foolish' for Washington to hope to defeat Moscow, and that NATO is experiencing 'donor fatigue' as the Kiev sweatshirt-wearing warmonger 'loses credibility' .
Translation: It is NATO as a whole that is completely losing its credibility, as its humiliation on the Ukrainian battlefield is now painfully visible to the entire world majority.
In addition, “donor fatigue” results in the loss of a major war. As military analyst Andrei Martyanov has tirelessly pointed out, “NATO 'planning' is a joke. And they are envious, painfully envious and jealous.”
A credible way forward is for Moscow not to negotiate with NATO – a mere appendage of the Pentagon – but to offer individual European countries a security pact with Russia that would obviate their need for NATO membership. This would guarantee the security of any participating country and reduce the pressure exerted on it by Washington.
We can bet that the most important European powers could accept it, but certainly not Poland – the hyena of Europe – and the Baltic chihuahuas.
At the same time, China could offer peace treaties to Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, which would lead to the disappearance of a significant part of the American empire from the bases.
The problem, once again, is that vassal states have neither the authority nor the power to comply with an agreement that guarantees peace. German businessmen are sure that sooner or later Berlin might defy Washington and do business with the Russia-China strategic partnership because it benefits Germany.
Yet the golden rule has still not been followed: if a vassal state wants to be treated as a sovereign state, the first thing to do is shut down major Empire branches from bases and evict troops. Americans.
Iraq has been trying to do this for years, without success. A third of Syria remains occupied by the United States, even though the latter lost its proxy war against Damascus due to Russian intervention.
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Counter-Revolution – “Do you know what time it is? »
International Network - Jul 30, 2023
The West is waking up to a rapidly approaching disaster to which there is no easy solution.
To be frank, the United States and Europe have brazenly run into the traps they have laid for themselves. Caught up in the lies and deceptions woven around a supposed heritage of superior cultural DNA (guaranteeing, it is said, almost certain victory). The cultural exceptionalism, along with the prospect of an obvious “victory” over Russia, is rapidly dissipating – but the exit from the illusion is both slow and humiliating.
The devastation to come is not only centered on the failed offensive in Ukraine and the weakness of NATO. It includes multiple vectors that have accumulated over the years, but culminate in a synchronized fashion.
In the United States, the run-up to major elections is underway. The Democrats are in a bind: The party has long since turned its back on its former working-class constituents, instead engaging with an urban “creative class” in an exalted “social engineering” project of moral redress, by alliance with Silicon Valley and the Permanent Nomenklatura. But this experience took a turn for the worse, becoming more and more extreme and absurd. The reactions accumulate.
As expected, the Democratic campaign is not progressing. The Biden team's approval rating is very low. But the Biden family insists that Biden must persevere in his candidacy and not give in to another. Whether Biden stays or leaves, there is no ready-made solution to the conundrum of a party that is underperforming and lacks a platform.
The electoral landscape is in disarray. The heavy artillery of “just war” is meant to shatter Trump's defenses and drive him off the field, while mounting revelations of Biden family wrongdoing are meant to wear down and implode the Biden bubble. The Democratic establishment is also spooked by the flanking maneuver of RF Kennedy's candidacy, which quickly snowballs.
In other words, the Democratic ideology of historical reparation is dividing the United States into two countries living on one land. They are not so much divided by the “Reds or the Blues”, or by social classes, but by irreconcilable “ways of being”. The old categories: Left, Right, Democrat or GOP are being dissolved by a culture war that respects no categories, crossing the boundaries of class and party affiliation. Indeed, even ethnic minorities have been alienated by zealots who want to sexualize children as young as 5 and by the imposition of the trans agenda on school children.
Ukraine has served as a solvent for the old order and has become the albatross hanging around the neck of the Biden administration: How to make impending Ukraine debacle look like 'mission accomplished'? Is it possible ? Because the escape of a ceasefire and a frozen line of contact is unacceptable to Moscow. In short, the “Biden war” cannot continue as it is, but neither can it do “something else” without exposing itself to humiliation. The myth of American power, NATO competence and the reputation of American armament are at stake.
The economic (“everything is fine”) narrative is about, for somewhat unrelated reasons, to turn sour. Debt – finally – becomes the sword hanging over the neck of the economy. Credit is tightening. Next month, the BRICS-SCO bloc will take the first strategic steps to free up to 40 countries from the dollar. Who will then buy the $1100 trillion in Treasury bills from Ms. Yellen – now and in the future – that are needed to fund US government spending?
These events are seemingly disconnected from each other, but in reality they form a self-reinforcing loop. A loop that leads to a "rush on the political bank", that is to say on the very credibility of the United States.
Faced with many questions – and no solutions – the mood of some sectors of the electorate is radical and increasingly iconoclastic. A counter-revolutionary spirit, perhaps. It's too early to tell if he'll win a majority, but it's possible, because radicalism comes from both wings: the GOP base and the Kennedy “camp”.
A group of GOP voters is dividing conservative leaders into two camps: those who "know what time it is" and those who don't. It is the slogan of the right that has become increasingly important for a large wing of the party that sees a country weakened and corrupted by ideology; who believes that there is almost nothing left to "keep". The overthrow of the existing post-American order and the reinstatement of the old principles of the United States in practice are advocated as a kind of counter-revolution – and as the only way forward.
The aphorism “know what time it is” refers to an emerging sense of urgency and appetite for major action, not endless, boring academic debates among more populist-minded conservatives.
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Why you can't know the truth
International Network - Jul 24, 2023
How global news agencies and Western media report on geopolitics.
Small houses act as press agencies in certain areas, such as the prestigious BQ, Berard Quelin. The AGEFI partially acted as a press agency, it bore the name of Agency.
Check out the propaganda multiplier.
It is one of the most important aspects of our media system, and yet little known to the public: the bulk of international news coverage in Western media is provided by just three global news agencies based in New York, London and Paris.
The key role played by these agencies means that Western media often cover the same topics, even using the same wording.
Additionally, governments, militaries, and intelligence agencies use these global news agencies as multipliers to spread their messages around the world.
A study of coverage of the war in Syria by nine major European newspapers clearly illustrates these problems: 78% of all stories were based in whole or in part on agency reports, but 0% on own investigative research.
Additionally, 82% of all opinion pieces and interviews were in favor of US and NATO intervention, while propaganda was attributed exclusively to the opposing side.
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Putin issues stern warning to Poland and NATO
International Network - Jul 23, 2023
Putin held a videoconference with members of Russia's Security Council on Thursday.
I hope Westerners will pay attention to what he said, which is why I am presenting his full remarks following a presentation by the Director of Foreign Intelligence. Based on information from public sources and intelligence collected by Russia, the latter believes that Poland is planning to seize Ukrainian territory west of the Dnieper River, as the much-vaunted Ukrainian counteroffensive collapses.
If Russia sees Poland start massing troops on Ukraine's border (and let's not forget that the United States has deployed at least two armored brigades in Poland), it will certainly attract the attention of Kremlin leaders. Putin responded at length to Naryshkin's presentation. This does not sound like prepared remarks. He seems to speak extemporaneously and to draw very clear red lines for NATO.
“The policy of the Ukrainian regime does not concern us. If they want to give up or sell something to pay off their bosses, as traitors usually do, that's their business. We will not intervene.
But Belarus is part of the Union State, and to launch aggression against Belarus would be tantamount to launching aggression against the Russian Federation. We will respond with all the resources at our disposal."
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Was the Prigozhin rebellion real or fabricated?
Was the Prigozhin rebellion real or fabricated?Equality and Reconciliation - 22 Jul 2023
After the whirlwind of events that took place this weekend [end of June, editor's note] in Russia, we have many more questions than answers about what happened during the aborted rebellion of Yevgueni Prigojine, of the Wagner group, against Moscow.
I'm not here to definitively answer these questions, because we'll never really know the truth.
That said, if what I think happened is anywhere near the truth, this might be one of the greatest victories in modern history that didn't happen on a battlefield.
Let's start with what we know. For months, Prigozhin has denounced the lack of support from the Russian Ministry of Defense, while his men have done the heavy lifting in Bakhmout. His problems with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu are well known. It is also likely that Prigozhin and General Valery Gerasimov do not get along either.
“Who can pee the farthest” contests between military commanders are not uncommon, after all.
One could easily make the argument that Wagner was appointed to repair the damage caused by Shoigu, while Gerasimov undertook the larger task of reorienting the Russian army away from battalion tactical groups (BTGs) in favor of an infantry-centric army better able to take and hold territory.
In addition, there is this impending war against NATO.
One could also easily make the argument that his successes allowed Prigozhin to demand change and start getting big headed.
Now let's bring in the external factor, the enemy, NATO. But in reality, it was the American and British neoconservatives who spent every hour punching Russia in the face with blatant escalation to try to lure Russia and Putin offside.
Nordstream 2, the bombing of the Kerch Strait Bridge, the staged Boutcha massacre, the explosion of the Kakhovka dam, the Belgorod attacks, the smuggling of arms to Odessa under the auspices of the “grain deal”… The list is almost endless.
We have learned that the Russian FSB foiled a cesium-137 smuggling operation into Ukraine to simulate a nuclear attack. Think what you will, but in the world I've learned to live in, there's almost nothing, no cheap enough trickery, that the British and their American accomplices wouldn't try, in desperation.
In my worldview, MI6 and the UK Ministry of Defense spend their days finding a new way to justify a wider conflict between NATO and Russia. The destruction and balkanization of Russia has, after all, been their raison d'etre for over 300 years.
And, so far, this heuristic has proven to be almost perfect for predicting what will happen next.
So, let's stop the bullshit, okay?
This is by no means a spontaneous affair. It has been building for months. But what was built?
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Bulletin N°143. The truth makes free, Odessa bombarded, northern front
Bulletin N°143. The truth makes free, Odessa bombarded, northern frontStratpol - Jul 22, 2023
STRATPOL: Bulletin n°143 by Xavier Moreau
deep geopolitics
PlanetVPN
Meeting between Vladimir Putin and Christelle Néant
02:33 – Economy
Jacques Sapir on the resilience of the Russian economy
Drop in the ruble
Labor shortage
French energy crisis
US sanctions vs Kyrgyzstan
Chinese rare earths
Dedollarization: Indian Rupee
Diplomacy and politics
Putin and South Africa
EU vs Latin America
What is Erdogan playing?
Grain agreement
Marine Le Pen's Stratpolization
19:25 – Arming
GPS vs Russian Electronic Warfare
ARMATA on the southern front
F16 for Ukraine: billions and years
24:44 – Map of military operations
Crimean Bridge
Bombing of Odessa
Southern front: NATO at an impasse
Northern front: the Russians on the initiative
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Bulletin N°142. Chopper 2.0, Zelenski and NATO, Erdogan the tightrope walker
Stratpol - Jul 15, 2023
STRATPOL: Bulletin n° 142 by Xavier Moreau
On the program of this number 142:
Announcement
deep geopolitics
VPN vs European Commission
Economy
Yellen in China
UnHerd: 2008 business cycle
Fiona Scott vs European Economy
diplomacy
Erdogan the balancing act
Release of Azov cadres
Swedish entry into NATO
Failure of Zélinski and Macron
Grain agreement
SVR-CIA negotiations
Triumph of Sergei Lavrov in Jakarta
Armaments
S-200 missiles vs Russia
vintage german helper
Cluster munitions for Ukraine
Military Considerations
Wagner continuation and end
Chopper 2.0
Map of military operations
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The Blob begins to shake
International Network - Jul 12, 2023
When we deny the obvious, we are at war with reality, and it never ends well.
This is the ultimate outcome of the misadventure of our country, which has been going on for years, in the most total dishonesty. America's Administrative Blob has not just lied about everything it does, it has used the machinery of government at its disposal to destroy everything it touches in a terminal hysterical effort to cover up its misdeeds - including its crimes against his own people.
Understand: there is no way for Ukraine to avoid defeat in its fight against Russia, brought about by the United States. Russia has all the advantages. It is close to Ukraine. It has a strong weapons production capacity. The terrain of war is its own historic "frontier", which it has controlled since the XNUMXth century, with the exception of the last thirty years during which Ukraine has served as the "Central Claw" of American military contractors and their backers. policies. Despite the massive arms aid provided by the United States and the grudging contributions of the NATO contingent in Europe, there is virtually nothing left of the Ukrainian military in terms of troops, equipment and ammunition. Ukraine will eventually revert to a demilitarized “border” status.
What are NATO's alternatives? She can try to go back to trading. Russia has no reason to trust this process, given the way Minsk 1 and 2 worked (NATO and the US deliberately and dishonestly canceled them). The United States and NATO could send their own troops to Ukraine, but that would be suicide, given the alliance's reduced armaments and ammunition and the feminization of the United States military. The US could go one step further and cause a nuclear exchange (suicide by other means) – and given the level of terminal hysterical madness of the US Blob, that's not out of the question.
“The permanent state does not have the courage to take difficult decisions, to say to Moscow: 'Let's leave this unfortunate episode (Ukraine) behind us. Get out those draft treaties you wrote in December 2021, and let's see how we can work together to give Europe some functionality back”
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Satan laughs with pleasure
International Network - June 16, 2023
The context...
Wildfires that broke out in Canada in early June have spread their smoke across much of North America and beyond. New York was engulfed in smoke, and on the evening of June 9, the orange haze crossed the Atlantic on the jet stream and spread as far as London, England. Meanwhile, Spain and Italy have been hit by seasonal drought and Venice's canals have turned to mud and trickling water.
On the same day, June 9, ex-President Trump was charged with 37 counts and will face at least four trials. If found guilty, he faces up to ten years in prison for treason. Also on June 9, in the United Kingdom, a country on strike and in economic crisis, his youngest clone, the disgraced ex-Prime Minister Johnson, resigned from the London Parliament before being fired for having lied, as he would have been. The word "corruption" is used in both Washington and London. Both countries face elections at the end of next year. Is this common turbulence a sign of the "special relationship"? The smoke from forest fires in North America is a symbol of this. The air is unbreathable in more ways than one.
Meanwhile, two weeks ago, Germany, the manufacturing and science powerhouse of the suicidal EU, entered recession and all 20 eurozone countries joined it. They sanctioned themselves, not Russia. The EU, led by the United States, is totally divided on the war in Ukraine and on issues such as illegal immigration. Its military wing, the weak US-led NATO, also headquartered in Brussels, is no less divided, particularly over its expansion into Japan, but also the continued dispatch of unnecessary aid to Ukraine. Even NATO has denied Kyiv membership in NATO for at least as long as the war with Russia lasts – if NATO itself lasts that long. It is in this chaotic context that German tanks burn in the steppes of Ukraine…
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The routed Ukrainian army
The routed Ukrainian armyVoltairenet - June 13, 2023
In six days, the Western weapons accumulated by the Ukrainian army were almost all destroyed (ammunition, tanks and planes).
We can no longer count the human toll of this catastrophic counter-offensive.
The Ukrainian army shattered on the first line of Russian defense and could not reach the second, despite seven successive waves to cross them, the last of which on the night of June 9-10.
The leaders of the Atlantic Alliance and those of the Ukrainian armies blame each other for this terrible defeat.
Western arrogance has been defeated.
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The Sultan 2.0 will lean heavily to the east
International Network - June 02, 2023
It is not that Erdogan has a plan to turn east at the expense of the west. It's just that the greatest infrastructure, development and geopolitical projects in the world are all in the east today.
The collective West was dying to bury him – yet another strategic mistake that did not take into account the mood of Turkish voters in deep Anatolia.
Eventually, Recep Tayyip Erdogan succeeded – again. For all his flaws, like an aging neo-Ottoman Sinatra, he did it “my way,” comfortably retaining Turkey's presidency when opponents had all but buried him.
The first order of geopolitical priorities is who will be appointed foreign minister. The main candidate is Ibrahim Kalin, the current press secretary and senior adviser to Erdogan.
Compared to the incumbent Cavusoglu, Kalin can, in theory, be called more pro-Western. However, it is the Sultan who leads the dance. It will be fascinating to watch how Erdogan's Turkey 2.0 handles deepening ties with West Asia and accelerating the Eurasia integration process.
The first immediate priority, from Erdogan's point of view, is to get rid of the "terrorist corridor" in Syria. This means, in practice, ruling over the US-backed Kurdish YPG/PYD, which are effectively Syrian affiliates of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) – which is also the issue at the heart of a possible normalization of the relations with Damascus.
Now that Syria has been enthusiastically welcomed into the Arab League after a 12-year freeze, a Moscow-brokered deal between the Turkish and Syrian presidents, already underway, could represent the ultimate win-win for Erdogan: allowing controlling the Kurds in northern Syria while facilitating the repatriation of around 4 million refugees (tens of thousands will remain, as a source of cheap labour).
The Sultan is at his best when it comes to hedging his bets between East and West. He knows perfectly well how to take advantage of Turkey's status as a key member of NATO - with one of its largest armies, veto power and control over the entrance to the uber-strategic Black Sea. .
And all this while exercising real independence in foreign policy, from Western Asia to the Eastern Mediterranean.
So expect Erdogan 2.0 to remain an inextinguishable source of irritation for the neocons and neoliberals in charge of US foreign policy, as well as their EU vassals, who will never shy away from it. trying to subjugate Ankara to fight the Russia-China-Iran Eurasian integration deal. The sultan knows how to play this game perfectly.
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Russia's dismantling plans
International Network - May 15, 2023
The journal Conflicts has just published a translation of an article relating how the EU, NATO, and those that the Russians now call “the collective West” are organizing a vast project to dismember Russia.
The United States empire and its vassals cannot tolerate a rival and do everything to suppress any regional or world power which could prevent them from organizing and exploiting the world according to their desires. They are the same ones who organized the dissolution of the USSR, that of socialist Yugoslavia and then of Serbia, from which Kosovo was separated. They are the same ones who encourage Uyghur Islamist secessionist in Xinjiang, Tibetan secessionism and who destroyed Iraq, Libya and a number of African countries, and tried to do the same with Syria.
Depending on their interests and situations, these countries, agencies and international organizations call either for "respect for human rights", for the "right of peoples to self-determination", or for the intangibility of borders and the respect for sovereignty. Thus, for them, the borders of Ukraine are intangible and Ukraine is "sovereign" but Russia, Syria and so many other countries can be butchered at will. They sign (and find all kinds of idiots useful to do so) for the Uyghurs, but have forgotten the very existence of international law for Puerto Rico, Comoros, and a large number of other countries.
The Post-Russia Forum of Free Nations, a framework for dialogue that brings together the independence demands of Russian ethnic minorities and regional realities (and their Euro-Atlantic sympathizers – Americans, Poles and Baltics), met on 31 January 2023 to the European Parliament for its fifth meeting. The group presented in Brussels its project for the “decolonization and reconstruction” of the Russian Federation, sponsored by the Polish component of the Party of European Conservatives and Reformists.
“As in the case of the German Third Reich, the Russian Federation, as an existential threat to humanity and the international order, should undergo drastic changes. It is naïve to think that Russia, after having been definitively defeated, will remain within the same constitutional and territorial framework. The international community cannot adopt a comfortable position while awaiting developments, but must undertake a […] re-federalization of the Russian state, taking into account the history of its imperialism and respecting the rights and wishes of the nations that compose it. »
