Obviously it's serious and it can't last forever. But sometimes, even if it's not forever, it's a long time!
And it may last longer than we all think or anticipate.
Is France at risk of bankruptcy?
Obviously she risks bankruptcy.
In reality France is already bankrupt.
We have been spending since 1974, that is to say for 50 years, much more than what “we earn”. And yet the debt continues to rise!
The markets continue to finance us.
So… the question is why the markets continue to lend to France when we are managing like hell? Well, not us, our “Mozarts” of finance.
The answer is simple and is essentially due to two reasons.
The first, if things became really serious, the ECB would intervene as a last resort, buy French debt to avoid bankruptcy and the explosion of the euro zone. This is the “Draghi doctrine” of the President of the ECB who in 2011 declared that the euro was irreversible, that it would do whatever it took and that that would be enough.
The second reason is that the French are rich! Very rich. We squeal, we complain and many are indeed poor. But despite the taxes and the level of taxes in this country, the French are very, very economical. Finally, those who are not unsuccessful baskets and in reality, there is a potentially immense taxable windfall. In 2023 the savings rate in France will be 17.3%! Yes, you read correctly. 17.3%! It's colossal, it's considerable. For comparison, in the United States the savings rate is only 4.3%! I don't know if you realize what that means. On average, French people who know nothing about economics operate with credit budgets and at the end of the year they spend 17,3% less than what they earned. The “Mozarts” of finance who govern us, all these pretentious and well-educated graduates who take us for imbeciles, “people who are nothing” and these “brilliant” types end each budget year having spent more than 40% more than they earned and made deficit after deficit.
The heritage of the French? 20 billion euros!
While the Mozarts are plunging 20 feet of deficit under the sea, the simple French are cushioning and holding 000 billion euros in assets at the last count in 20.052.
“After a strong increase in 2021 (+9,1%), France's net wealth increased by 5,6% in 2022, to 20.052 billion euros, according to an INSEE study published this Wednesday. This corresponds to the difference between the value of financial and non-financial assets (58.977 billion euros) and that of the liabilities of economic agents (households, businesses and public administrations). »
And yes, minus the Mozarts' liabilities, we still have more than 20 billion euros! Hahahahahahahahaha. Fire them all and put my chickens in Bercy, even a goat would do better than all those who have followed one another for 000 decades.
As for the net financial wealth of households in 2022, it was… 4 billion euros!!
And yes, my friends, France is rich! Very rich.
Then France will go bankrupt... when the French have been ruined!Set Featured Image
You must understand that before the country's bankruptcy, the country's solvency will be considered by the crazy, the incompetent and the Mozarts who pull the levers, as strategic. Like the best interests of the nation.
Your assets are the guarantee of our solvency.
Finally, I could almost say that the French State has pledged your money, your savings, your assets to the markets.
There will only be bankruptcy in France when household savings have also been consumed by our apprentice sorcerers in the Palaces.
Will France go bankrupt is therefore the wrong question…
At this stage of the reasoning, it should normally become clear to you that, contrary to what we hear, the question is not whether France will go bankrupt.
At a lively pace and in an educational approach, mixing analyses, expert testimonies and graphics, the documentary 3 billion: the secrets of a bankrupt State aims to explain to the French the debt cycle and how we have come to this. But also to push political leaders to act, as the situation is so serious.
CONTENTS
00: 00 Introduction
11:28 Chapter 1: Tax, elected officials, public service
24:47 Local authorities
37:35 Chapter 2: Expense control
53:46 State management
1:08:33 Chapter 3: The public expenditure matrix
1:18:46 The French health system
1:27:48 Chapter 4: Debt
1:36:58 The consequences of non-payment of debt
SPEAKERS
Jean-Marc Daniel - Economist and essayist - Professor at ESCP
Christian Saint-Etienne - Economist and essayist - Professor at CNAM
Marc Touati - Economist and essayist - ACEDFI Director
François Ecalle - Former general rapporteur of the Court of Auditors - President of FIPECO
Édouard Balladur – Former Prime Minister (1993-1995)
Benoît Perrin – Director of Taxpayers Associés
Virginie Pradel - Tax lawyer - President of the Vauban Institute
Olivier Babeau - Economist and essayist - President of the Sapiens Institute
Jean-Michel Fourgous - Mayor of Élancourt, former deputy
François Facchini – Professor of economics at Paris-Sorbonne University
François Lainée – Consultant, Data Expert
Jean-Baptiste Leon – Publications Director of Contribuables Associés
Benoîte Taffin - Former mayor of the 2nd arrondissement of Paris
Paul-Antoine Martin – Engineer and essayist
Hervé Novelli - Former minister, deputy and mayor
Charles Prats - Former magistrate of the National Delegation for the fight against Fraud (DNLF)
Pr. Michaël Peyromaure - Head of the Urology department at Cochin hospital and essayist
Lisa Kamen-Hirsig – Teacher and essayist
Author-Director: Charles Thimon - Producer: Charles Guillemin
This is the trend that predominates in the United States, and throughout the world, company managers are increasingly worried about customer rejection and the exorbitant prices of spare parts such as batteries.
Mary Barra, CEO of General Motors, admits abandoning her initial goals for producing electric vehicles. “As we move forward with the transformation to electric vehicles, things get a little more complicated.”
Elon Musk, leader of electric cars in the United States, signaled that the economic crisis would lead to a drop in demand. The CEO of Mercedes Benz described the electric car market as “brutal” with cars costing thousands of dollars more than thermal models.
Inflation will have been the pivot of the fall of the electric vehicle, supply and demand still dominate the automobile market, and when the consumer no longer has the means to buy a vehicle, it is the manufacturer who suffers. .
In addition, the electrification of the charging station network is late and continues to be supported by diesel generators which are easy to install on the motorway network. The European Parliament passed a law to install a charging station every 60 kilometers by 2026. But three years is an eternity, and drivers can't wait that long.
A journey in an electric car is a delicate experience where the pleasure of driving fades after a quarter of an hour to find the locations of the charging stations. A journey in an electric car is also lengthened by the recharging time which is long compared to the time it takes to fill a petrol tank. The electric car only had an urban future consisting of short journeys and less need for recharging.
As of October 31, 2023, auto insurance prices will skyrocket.
The tax exemption on insurance contributions (TSCA) for electric vehicles will end on December 31, 2023. A subsidized economy does nothing good, on the contrary it distorts the market creating an illusion for buyers. Let's also not forget the increase in the price of electricity which will make a full electric tank more expensive than a full tank of gasoline. Macron's government has asked insurers to moderate their prices in the face of the significant rise in inflation.
Ticket machine and terminal for electric cars.
Philippe Saby, general manager of the broker Sally Azar gives us an example of an increase:
“This can represent a 27% increase in the comprehensive insurance premium.”
The insurer's problem is also to prevent fires caused by electric battery fires when the car is in the garage of the house. This specific case de facto leads to an increase in home insurance of around more than 5%.
The Hungarian prime minister said the European Commission had submitted a budget amendment proposal asking member states to pay tens of billions of euros.
Orbán also pointed out that the EU is asking member states for more money, when it is only two years away from its seven-year budget. In other words, the money that was approved for expenditure and that was supposed to be available for the next five years has already been spent.
“The only question everyone is asking here in Brussels is: Where did the money go? »
As was to be expected, with the rise in current rates, the central banks created a bond crash. However, the equity capital of certain companies, themselves also invested in government bonds in accordance with the law, is no longer sufficient to absorb losses and ensure liquidity.
You have there, exactly the same phenomenon as that which has just touched the SVB bank in the United States and which precipitated its bankruptcy.
In Europe, it is on the side of Italy that the first insurance company falls.
Eurovita. 15 billion blocked funds.
Eurovita is owned by a British private equity firm Cinven which injected 100 million euros in catastrophe into its Italian life insurer. But this emergency aid was not enough to prevent Eurovita from becoming the first insurance company in the country to be placed under provisional administration.
A priori, and at this stage, as for the Silicon Valley Bank, we are not talking about banks that would have done absolutely anything. We are talking about institutions that have been hit hard by the violent and brutal rise in interest rates and therefore by the bond crash I was telling you about yesterday.
I give you the graph of the fall in bonds, here the two-year ones!
As you know, you who read these columns regularly, we have been dancing on a financial volcano since the subprime crisis which actually dates from 2007, so I am not really surprised to see what is happening.
However, in our situation, the authorities explain to you that “it has nothing to do with 2008”. Well, that's wrong. As with every crisis, everything is created and started from scratch by the central banks when they decide to raise interest rates massively.
Never, ever even in the world before have central banks raised interest rates so sharply and so quickly, going from years of negative rates to positive nominal rates officially scared of inflation.
Inevitably, this was going to make everything crack. The bond market, the banks, the financial system but, also, in the long term, the debts of States since a country like France with its 120% of debts on GDP is in virtual bankruptcy if we had to pay 4% of rate of interest on all of our debt, which would globally be 6% of GDP in interest alone. Impossible. It's even worse than Italy.
Governments everywhere will have to raise interest rates to try to contain inflation. And when they do, the cost of servicing all that debt will bankrupt millions of people, destroy thousands of businesses, and put nations at risk. No country on earth is immune. The United Kingdom and the United States could find themselves in default. Services will have to be reduced. Pensions and other payments will have to be stopped.
The situation is no different today, as it is clear that the US Fed is acting with the interest rate weapon to collapse what is the largest speculative financial bubble in human history, a bubble that she created herself.
Global crashes always start at the periphery, like the Austrian Creditanstalt of 1931 or the bankruptcy of Lehman Brother in September 2008. The Fed's June 15 decision to impose the biggest rate hike in nearly 30 years, as that financial markets are already collapsing, now guarantees a global depression or worse.
This is why the left socialist government is in the process of passing a law authorizing the expropriation of private property and a “corralito”.
This last point means that the state can access the savings that people have in their bank accounts. In these “crisis situations”, the citizen would only be entitled to withdraw small sums. The rest of the money could be “temporarily” confiscated. The maximum amount would be determined by the authority of the country concerned, explained the portal "La Información" in March 2021.